By 2030, it is anticipated that the United States, Europe, and China will control 80% of the global clean hydrogen supply, as major nations are pushing for hydrogen industry development to achieve carbon neutrality.
Bloomberg reports that, according to a study by BloombergNEF (BNEF), the US, Europe, and China will dominate the global low-carbon hydrogen supply by 2030 due to strong regulatory support and ambitious growth targets.
By 2030, these three regions are expected to account for 80% of the global clean hydrogen production, with an annual supply projected to reach 16.4 million tons, a thirtyfold increase from current levels.
The United States is anticipated to contribute 37% of low-carbon hydrogen production by 2030, supported by subsidies and tax incentives. Europe and China are expected to account for 24% and 19%, respectively.
Most of Europe’s hydrogen production will come from the UK, the Netherlands, Spain, and Portugal. However, monitoring China remains challenging due to a lack of detailed information on government projects and targets.
According to BNEF's "New Energy Outlook 2024" report, demand for all types of hydrogen is projected to quadruple by 2050, reaching 390 million tons. Industries such as steel, aviation, and shipping will drive the increase in clean hydrogen demand. This forecast aligns with a net-zero emissions scenario aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as stipulated by the Paris Agreement.
Approximately 95GW of electrolysers are expected to be operational by the end of 2030, nearly ten times the currently approved capacity. Clean hydrogen production using electrolysers is projected to dominate production in the Asia-Pacific region over the next decade. Concurrently, most of the supply from major producers like the US and UK will be "blue hydrogen," produced from fossil fuels but coupled with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology.
BNEF noted that the green transition in the power sector could significantly contribute to the required carbon emissions reductions and the supply of clean hydrogen by 2030. This transition would enable more resources to be allocated to supplying clean hydrogen to industries such as steel, aluminum, and aviation. To achieve carbon neutrality, the first step is to triple the current renewable energy capacity by 2030.
Regarding the green transition in the power sector and the supply of clean hydrogen, BNEF explained, "If major countries continue their renewable energy projects at the current pace, the share of renewable energy in power production could exceed 50% by the end of 2030, even without additional political incentives, purely based on economic factors."
Axel Eggert, Secretary General of the European Steel Association (EUROFER), stated, "The European steel industry is working on projects utilizing clean hydrogen, such as hydrogen-based steelmaking, which will become significant from 2026-2027. However, comprehensive preparations for clean hydrogen supply are still lacking."
Meanwhile, the BNEF report faces some opposition. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) suggests that Australia, the MENA region, the US, and Brazil will be central to clean hydrogen supply. They foresee these regions becoming hubs for blue hydrogen with CCUS technology and green hydrogen-based DRI (Direct Reduced Iron) production using renewable energy.
IEEFA argues that the EU and China, identified by BNEF as key to clean hydrogen supply, will struggle to become hubs due to issues such as the cost of renewable energy. They also anticipate that the steel industry will shift from hydrogen-based steelmaking to DRI and electric arc furnace methods using steel scrap.
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