The stainless steel (STS) market is focusing on changes in the external environment, such as trade issues, high exchange rates, and strong nickel prices. These factors can affect product shipment prices and distribution sales prices during the peak season.
Recently, the Trade Commission announced the initiation of an anti-dumping re-investigation on stainless steel plates from China, Indonesia, and Taiwan, drawing attention from the industry. Analyses suggest that the anti-dumping duties had a significant impact on reducing the volume of low-priced imports from these three countries before the sanctions. However, the 2021 flood damage to POSCO's stainless steel sector led to domestic STS supply instability and short-term price surges, causing a surge in imports from these three countries, which partially neutralized the sanctions' effects.
The industry generally believes that the government's anti-dumping sanctions had a meaningful impact. If the existing sanctions, set to expire in September, lead to preliminary (provisional) and formal duties through a re-examination, it is expected to prevent a flood of low-priced imports from these three countries into the domestic market. This would likely support the prices of domestic and imported STS products in the future.
Additionally, the trends in exchange rates and nickel prices are also supporting the rise or at least the stabilization of domestic STS prices. The recent won/dollar exchange rate is evaluated to be high, hovering around 1,360 won per dollar, despite some appreciation of the won. Import industry sources report that local suppliers are offering higher prices considering the exchange rate situation.
Furthermore, last week, the London Metal Exchange (LME) spot price of nickel surpassed $20,000 per ton (with the three-month price at $21,000), fueling the recent series of surcharge increases by global STS mills.
Domestic STS mills are also paying close attention to the heated changes in external conditions, including exchange rates, rising import prices, trade issues, and nickel prices. In this context, there is speculation about a potential price increase by domestic manufacturers in June, which may lead to price hikes by distributors and import handlers. There is also interest in whether speculative demand might arise in anticipation of these price increases.
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