Projects in these three markets are expected to account for 80% of production.
By the end of the decade, the United States, Europe, and China are expected to lead the global supply of low-carbon hydrogen due to strong regulatory support and ambitious growth targets, according to a report from BloombergNEF (BNEF), as reported by Bloomberg.
By 2030, these three markets are anticipated to account for 80% of the global clean hydrogen production, with annual supply expected to increase 30-fold to 16.4 million tons.
The United States is projected to account for 37% of low-carbon hydrogen production by 2030, while Europe and China are expected to account for 24% and 19%, respectively. This is due to strong domestic policy support, including subsidies and tax incentives.
Most of Europe's hydrogen production is expected to come from the UK, the Netherlands, Spain, and Portugal. In China, the situation is more difficult to monitor due to a lack of information about government projects and Beijing's goals.
According to the 'New Energy Outlook 2024' published by BNEF, the demand for all types of hydrogen is expected to quadruple by 2050, reaching 390 million tons. This demand will be driven by industries such as steel, aviation, and shipping. The forecast is based on a zero-emissions scenario, limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels as stipulated by the Paris Agreement.
By the end of 2030, approximately 95 GW of electrolyzers could be operational, nearly 10 times the capacity approved today. This method is likely to account for almost all hydrogen production in the Asia-Pacific region this decade. At the same time, most of the supply from major producers such as the United States and the United Kingdom will be "blue" hydrogen, produced from fossil fuels but combined with carbon capture and storage.
In terms of electricity generation, green power production could provide most of the aggressive emissions reductions needed by 2030, BNEF noted. This would allow more time to address challenges in industries such as steel and aviation, where cost-competitive low-carbon solutions have not yet become widespread. Achieving zero emissions will require tripling renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade.
Even if the transition is driven solely by economic factors, without additional political incentives, the share of renewables in electricity generation could exceed 50% by the end of this decade.
As reported by Scrap Insight, the European steel industry needs 5 million tons of hydrogen annually to decarbonize its operations. Axel Eggert, CEO of the European Steel Association (EUROFER), noted that major metallurgical projects in the region will be ready to use hydrogen by 2026-2027, but supply is currently lacking.
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