ICSG Significantly Raises 2024 Copper Production and Usage Forecast

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) announced in a report on September 26 that it has revised its forecast for the global refined copper supply surplus in 2024 upwards by around 190%. This adjustment is due to higher-than-expected refined copper production. According to the latest forecast, the surplus is expected to reach 469,000 tons this year, a substantial increase from the previous estimate of 162,000 tons in April.

Increased Copper Mine and Refined Copper Production

The ICSG has raised its 2024 global copper mine production forecast to 22.75 million tons, reflecting a growth rate of 1.7%. In April, the growth rate was projected at 0.5%, but the upward adjustment is due to additional production from new and expanded projects. However, the closure of Panama’s Cobre mine, which reduced global production by 330,000 tons this year, has also been factored in.

In 2025, copper mine production is expected to increase by 3.5%, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 3.9%. The main drivers of this growth are the ramp-up of the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, and the start-up of Russia’s Malmyzhskoye mine.

Global refined copper production is expected to rise by 4.2% this year, reaching 27.62 million tons, surpassing the previous growth forecast of 2.8%. This recovery is due to maintenance work and operational shutdowns from last year, as well as additional output from new and expanded plants in the Democratic Republic of Congo and China. However, the refined copper growth rate for 2025 is expected to slow to 1.6% due to raw material supply limitations.

Copper Demand Trends and Usage Forecast

The ICSG also revised its 2024 global refined copper usage forecast upwards, predicting usage to reach 27.15 million tons this year. This implies a growth rate of 2.2%, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 2%. Copper usage in China is expected to increase by around 2% in 2024, and by 1.8% in 2025. Meanwhile, copper usage in the rest of the world is projected to rise by 2.4% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025.

According to the ICSG, infrastructure development in major countries, as well as the transition to clean energy and electric vehicles, will continue to support long-term copper demand.

For 2025, the ICSG predicts a surplus of 194,000 tons in the global refined copper balance, up from the previous forecast of 94,000 tons.