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| Copper |
Smelter Maintenance Leads to Decline in Imports
China's copper concentrate imports fell for the second consecutive month in November 2023, declining 3% from October and 8.1% year-on-year. The drop was primarily driven by maintenance at major copper smelters, reducing demand for feedstock. Market analysts report that the affected smelters collectively account for an annual production capacity of 2 million tonnes (mn t).
Despite the overall decline, imports from Serbia saw a 26% year-on-year surge between January and November, largely due to Zijin Mining's expansion of the Cukaru Peki copper-gold mine. This trend underscores China's strategy of diversifying and securing overseas supply sources amid increasing global competition for raw materials.
Supply Constraints Persist Amid Rising Demand
A persistent global shortage of copper concentrate continues to impact the market. Disruptions at major mines have tightened supply, while China has added 800,000 t/yr of new smelting capacity in 2023, particularly in the latter half of the year, following the restart and commissioning of several facilities.
Despite November's import decline, China's total copper concentrate imports increased by 2.1% year-on-year for January-November 2023, supported by a 4.6% rise in domestic refined copper production, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Market Tightness Expected in 2025
Looking ahead to 2025, the copper concentrate market is expected to remain tight as smelting capacity expansions outpace new copper mine developments. This imbalance is likely to sustain pressure on feedstock availability, keeping treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) at low levels and raising concerns over long-term raw material supply security. With global demand for copper rising due to its essential role in electrification and renewable energy, supply challenges may continue to impact pricing and market stability.
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