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| Uranium |
U.S. Policy Gap Leaves Uranium Off Critical Minerals List
Despite growing demand and geopolitical supply risks, uranium remains excluded from the U.S. critical minerals list due to a legal gap in the Energy Act of 2020, which only considers “non-fuel minerals” as critical. This exclusion limits access to federal funding and fast-track permitting for domestic uranium projects, despite its increasing importance to energy security and national defense.
Uranium meets many criticality criteria:
- Demand is surging due to nuclear energy’s resurgence
- Supply is heavily concentrated in Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia
- The U.S. is nearly entirely import-dependent for uranium supply
Nuclear Energy Revival Driving Uranium Prices
Following the 2011 Fukushima disaster, nuclear energy faced global skepticism, but concerns over climate change and energy security have spurred a nuclear renaissance. The COP28 summit in December 2023 saw over 20 countries commit to tripling nuclear power capacity by 2050 to meet net-zero emissions goals.
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts record-high global nuclear power generation by 2025
- 63 reactors are under construction, the highest level since 1990
- Over 60 existing reactors are being extended beyond their original lifespans
In the U.S., bipartisan support for nuclear energy is growing. While the Trump administration prioritizes national security, the Biden administration has focused on reducing reliance on Russian uranium, which accounted for 27% of U.S. reactor fuel in 2023.
Supply Constraints and Geopolitical Risks
Despite increased demand, uranium supply is under pressure:
- U.S. uranium production plummeted from 5 million pounds in 2014 to just 21,000 pounds in 2021
- Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom, the world’s largest uranium producer, warned of supply disruptions due to sulphuric acid shortages
- Canada, the U.S.’s top uranium supplier, could face tariffs under Trump’s trade policies
Adding to the uncertainty, Russia and the U.S. have imposed restrictions on enriched uranium trade, with waivers set to expire in 2027, further tightening supply for U.S. nuclear reactors.
Uranium Prices Reflect Market Stress
While last year’s speculative price surge saw uranium hit $106 per pound, current prices remain historically high at $71 per pound, well above post-Fukushima levels. Market pricing indicates an expectation of future supply deficits as the global nuclear fleet expands.
The U.S. has ample untapped uranium reserves, particularly from in-situ leach mining operations, but unlocking these resources depends on resolving the legal distinction between “fuel minerals” and critical minerals”—a classification that could determine the future of U.S. uranium independence.