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Climate Change Committee (CCC) Proposes Feasible Emission Reduction Pathway
The UK advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC) has outlined a "feasible" pathway towards an 87% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2040, from a 1990 baseline.
This is "an ambitious target," but it is deliverable, provided action is taken rapidly, the committee stated. Electrification and "low-carbon" electricity generation would account for 60% of the emission reductions.
The CCC recommends a level of 535mn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) for the UK's seventh carbon budget over 2038-42, including emissions from international aviation and shipping. A carbon budget sets a legally binding cap on emissions over a period, with the CCC advising the government on appropriate levels.
Enhancing Energy Resilience
The energy transition "will make the UK economy more resilient by reducing dependence on volatile international fossil fuel markets," the CCC noted. It projects net energy imports falling from 867TWh in 2025 to 202TWh in 2050, with the cost of achieving net-zero emissions estimated at around 0.2% of UK GDP annually. While upfront investments are required, these will lead to long-term savings. The CCC expects significant private sector investment but emphasizes that "policy is needed to provide confidence."
Expanding Renewable Energy
"UK-based renewable energy provides the bulk of generation in a larger, future electricity system," the committee stated. The CCC’s roadmap envisions a six-fold increase in offshore wind capacity to 88GW by 2040, up from 15GW in 2023, along with 32GW of onshore wind and 82GW of solar power by 2040. Nuclear power, energy storage, and grid upgrades will also be necessary.
The industrial sector, known for high emissions and challenging decarbonization, is projected to meet 61% of its energy demand with electricity, up from the current 26%. This shift will allow "UK manufacturers to benefit from global demand for low-carbon goods," the CCC noted.
Hydrogen, Bioenergy, and Carbon Capture
For shipping and aviation, the CCC identifies a role for "low-carbon fuels," including hydrogen and bioenergy. However, sustainable bioenergy sources are limited, and hydrogen has restricted applications, with no role in heating buildings and only a "niche, if any," role in surface transport.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be deployed selectively, where alternatives are scarce. The CCC envisions CCS use in industrial sectors, alongside hydrogen, and with bioenergy (BECCS) and direct air capture. However, this will require CO2 transport and storage infrastructure as well as finalized business models. Nature-based carbon sequestration methods, such as afforestation and peatland restoration, will also contribute.
Electric Vehicles and Heat Pumps
The committee projects a sharp rise in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, with three-quarters of cars and vans and almost two-thirds of heavy goods vehicles being electric by 2040, compared to just 2.8% of cars and 1.4% of vans in 2023. Battery cost reductions are expected to enable EVs to achieve price parity with gasoline and diesel cars between 2026 and 2028. Additionally, half of UK homes are expected to use heat pumps by 2040, up from just 1% in 2023.
The UK government must propose a level for the seventh carbon budget by 30 June 2026, which Parliament will then approve or reject. In recent months, the government has adhered to CCC recommendations, committing to an 81% emissions cut by 2035 in its national climate plan.
