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| Coke |
Steel mills took a cautious approach, reluctantly replenishing coke stocks. Trade sources indicate that they anticipate further price declines. In the port of Rizhao, coke prices fell by $7/t in the first week of March, reaching $191/t under spot contracts. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, May coke futures declined by $3.7/t compared to April.
Market Influences and Export Challenges
The weak coke market is primarily due to seasonal factors at the start of the year. Economic activity slowed during the Chinese New Year holiday from January 29 to February 12. Additionally, steel production in China fell by 5.6% year-on-year in January to 81.9 million tons.
Further pressure on demand came from the government’s decision to reduce steel production during the National People’s Congress, which began on March 5 and lasts 8-15 days.
Export opportunities remain limited due to challenging conditions in foreign markets. In India, one of the world’s largest coke consumers, an import ban remains in place. Authorities are considering extending the ban beyond June 30, 2025.
The European coke market, however, is experiencing an upward trend. Polish producer Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa (JSW) reported significant losses of $1.87 billion for 2024. In response, JSW announced in early March that it will cut investments by $310 million in 2025 compared to its previous plans from mid-2024.
Ukraine has also faced significant losses in its coke and chemical industry. According to GMK Center estimates, the country lost about 64% of its coke production capacity between 2014 and 2024. The transition to imported coke and coking coal has helped stabilize the financial position of steel producers, enabling them to sustain operations, investments, and debt servicing. However, reduced competitiveness poses risks to metallurgical production and exports.
