Iron Ore Prices Near $100/t as Market Hits Psychological Ceiling

 Iron Ore

Analysts see no further upside as futures flatten, steel billet prices fall

Increased supply from Australia and stagnant demand cap market momentum

Iron ore prices have edged closer to the psychological barrier of $100 per tonne, signaling a likely cap in the near term as market expectations stabilize.

As of April 20, iron ore with 62% Fe content was priced at $99/t CFR Qingdao, marking a $3/t rise since April 7, according to Kallanish. On the Singapore Exchange, May futures matched the spot price at $99/t, while September contracts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were slightly lower at $98/t. These figures reflect market sentiment that further price increases are unlikely in the medium term.

Meanwhile, Chinese steel billet prices declined by $18/t to $403/t EXW Tangshan between March 26 and April 18. The drop coincides with a notable increase in Australian iron ore shipments. In March, exports from Port Hedland climbed to 50.66 million tons, a 1.15% year-on-year and 36.73% month-on-month increase.

Despite falling finished steel prices, the uptick in iron ore pricing suggests growing government support for China's steel sector. Analysts suggest that authorities are compensating mills for margin losses and incentivizing higher steel production.

Further signs of support include declining inventories of flat and long steel products—such as hot-rolled coils and rebar—across both trader and mill warehouses in April. This boosted demand but failed to lift prices significantly.

Premier Li Keqiang reinforced this direction on April 17, calling for “timely and targeted policy measures to help guide market expectations.”

Elsewhere, Brazilian high-grade Fe 65 ore held steady at $110/t CFR China between April 11–18, despite a $5/t drop in domestic supply since early April.

In Ukraine, iron ore exports fell by 5.7% y/y to 8.49 million tons in Q1 2025, with the value down 20.3% to $687.79 million. China remains the country’s top customer.

Concerns persist for Ukrainian producers. According to Ukrmetprom President Oleksandr Kalenkov, the State Tax Service's delay in VAT refunds in March is hampering output and exports at Ferrexpo, a key mining group. The production cutback signals broader challenges in Ukraine’s iron ore sector amid ongoing economic instability.