Nornickel Reaffirms 2025 Nickel Output Target Despite Headwinds

Nornickel

Production Dip in Q1 Attributed to Planned Maintenance; Company Navigates Domestic and Global Pressures

Moscow – Russia’s Nornickel, the world’s top palladium producer and one of the largest global nickel suppliers, has maintained its 2025 nickel production forecast at 204,000 to 211,000 metric tons, despite challenges on multiple fronts.

The company reported nickel output of 42,000 tons in the first quarter of 2025, down 1.1% year-on-year, due to scheduled maintenance. Palladium production dropped 0.6% to 741,000 ounces, while platinum output rose 0.6% to 180,000 ounces.

Senior Vice President Alexander Popov emphasized the decline was temporary and part of a planned effort to “support steady operation of main technological units.”

Market and Macroeconomic Pressures Weigh on Outlook

Nornickel continues to face both domestic and international pressure. The rouble's 40% rally has eroded revenues in dollar terms, and high interest rates are straining investment capacity.

On the global stage, metal prices remain soft or stagnant amid lower demand. The environment has been further destabilized by trade disruptions, including those triggered by U.S. tariffs under President Trump’s policies.

Though not under direct Western sanctions, Nornickel has experienced reduced Western demand, payment difficulties, and restricted access to equipment, reflecting a broader shift in sentiment toward Russian metal supply.

Analysts Cautious on Near-Term Demand

Analysts at BCS brokerage warn that a potential global economic slowdown spurred by tariff wars could continue to weigh on Nornickel’s metals portfolio. However, the company’s strategic forecast stability suggests confidence in its long-term production continuity, particularly for nickel—a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries and energy transition technologies.


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